I think it's way too early to go game-by-game and assume wins/losses in the conference schedule.
If Underwood has any coaching chops, even with this team's flaws I fully expect them to pull out a couple of upsets in the conference that they shouldn't have any chance at. With Groce, we always knew in advance the games we would win and the games we would lose. Without going back in detail, I'm guessing those 7 wins in 2013-14 were likely all the teams below us in the standings. It's time for Underwood to show his coaching ability and get us some wins when we're physically outmatched.
Last year's record was 14-18 - even with all the turnover I expect Underwood to be better this year than last year (and I would hope he expects this as well). That would be 15-16 or better. Expecting less than 12 wins is disastrous, even with all the excuses. And I'm sorry Robert, but 14-17 as a "goal" is ridiculous for an Illinois basketball coach, handicap or not. He needs to do better than that.
I'm not saying Underwood should be fired or anything if he gets less than 15 - but I'd be disappointed for sure.